Hold On...
Marci Dean • March 7, 2024
The Bank of Canada has decided not to change its benchmark rate in its latest decision.
- This keeps rates steady for the fifth consecutive time.
- The overnight rate, which affects variable mortgage rates, stays at 5.0%, the same rate since July 2023. (Bank prime is still 7.20%)
- There were no surprises in this Bank announcement today.
- The Bank of Canada is still concerned about inflation risks and wants to see more easing in core inflation.
- Last month, inflation decreased more than expected to 2.9%, inching closer to the Bank's target rate, which was good news, but……
- The Canadian economy expanded in the fourth quarter and grew at a 1.0% annualized rate.
- The speech from the US Treasury later this week will give a better sign on the possible trajectory of the rates both north and south of the Border.
- Another thing to look for is the job numbers both here in Canada and in the US as these will have an impact on interest rate movement and timing of cuts.
All this to say it is a delicate balancing act right now and there is not enough economic incentive for the BOC to start cutting rates!
Leading economists still expect the Bank to lower the policy rate to 3% by 2025, with a 33% chance of a cut in April at the next Bank of Canada meeting. Most economist now think rate cuts will be delayed until the summer. I follow many economists and experts on the Canadian Economy and one of my favourites if Benjamin Tal. Here is what he has had to say after yesterday’s news from the BOC:
Still, while its tone was slightly more hawkish than many had expected, Tal said the central bank had good reason not to give away the game on when it’s likely to begin bringing rates down.
“What’s interesting is the language of the statement, which is not as dovish as some people expected,” Tal told Canadian Mortgage Professional after yesterday’s announcement. “There’s no hint of any cuts coming. They’re concerned about sticky inflation – and I think it makes sense.
Tal went on to say: …. the central bank is still likely to cut in June.
Time will tell if Ben has it right!
Fixed rates for a three-year term are now hovering in the low 5% range while the 5-year fixed rates are a bit lower than this, some even starting with a 4! The trouble with locking in for 5 years is that if/when rates drop further the penalty to break and refinance for an even lower rate could be very costly. Everyone’s situation is different so please reach out if you would like to discuss your mortgage renewal options.
Meanwhile, the real estate market is picking up with an up tick in listings and many buyers coming off the side lines. We do expect that this will continue through 2024 and if/when the BOC cuts and prime drops, activity heat up. If you want to consider your options for buying or selling and upsizing, now is the time to run the Mortgage Math!
The Bank's next announcement is scheduled for April 10, 2024! 🏠💰
As always, if you want to review your own personal mortgage please reach out for a complimentary Mortgage Review.
Let's Talk About Mortgage Renewals In 2024
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, today’s uncertain rate environment means mortgage renewals are more complicated!
Here are some things to consider if you have an upcoming mortgage renewal:
- Confirm that your lender’s renewal offer includes all available terms.
- Know that the lender’s first offer isn't always their best offer.
- Ask for a quote that includes the rate and the new payment.
- Understand that Mortgages can be moved to a new lender at renewal and this is often without a cost to the borrower!
- The time to shop for a new mortgage is 3 - 6 months before your maturity date.
If you would like to explore all of your renewal options be sure to reach out to book a call.
If you want me to monitor your mortgage you can sign up for this service here!
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For most Canadians, buying a home isn’t possible without a mortgage. And while getting a mortgage may seem straightforward—borrow money, buy a home, pay it back—it’s the details that make the difference. Understanding how mortgages work (and what to watch out for) is key to keeping your borrowing costs as low as possible. The Basics: How a Mortgage Works A mortgage is a loan secured against your property. You agree to pay it back over an amortization period (often 25 years), divided into shorter terms (ranging from 6 months to 10 years). Each term comes with its own interest rate and rules. While the interest rate is important, it’s not the only thing that determines the true cost of your mortgage. Features, penalties, and flexibility all play a role—and sometimes a slightly higher rate can save you thousands in the long run. Key Questions to Ask Before Choosing a Mortgage How long will you stay in the property? Your timeframe helps determine the right term length and product. Do you need flexibility to move? If a work transfer or lifestyle change is possible, portability may be important. What are the penalties for breaking the mortgage early? This is one of the biggest factors in the real cost of borrowing. A low rate won’t save you if breaking costs you tens of thousands. How are penalties calculated? Some lenders use more borrower-friendly formulas than others. It’s not easy to calculate yourself—get professional help. Can you make extra payments? Prepayment privileges allow you to pay off your mortgage faster, potentially saving years of interest. How is the mortgage registered on title? Some registrations (like collateral charges) can limit your ability to switch lenders at renewal without extra costs. Which type of mortgage fits best? Fixed, variable, HELOCs, or even reverse mortgages each have their place depending on your financial and life situation. What’s your down payment? A larger down payment could reduce or eliminate mortgage insurance premiums, saving thousands upfront. Why the Lowest Rate Isn’t Always the Best Choice It’s tempting to chase the lowest rate, but mortgages with rock-bottom pricing often come with restrictive terms. For example, saving 0.10% on your rate may put a few extra dollars in your pocket each month, but if the mortgage has harsh penalties, you could end up paying thousands more if you break it early. The goal isn’t just the lowest rate—it’s the lowest overall cost of borrowing . That’s why it’s so important to look beyond the headline number and consider the whole picture. The Bottom Line Mortgage financing in Canada is about more than rate shopping. It’s about aligning your mortgage with your financial goals, lifestyle, and future plans. The best way to do that is to work with an independent mortgage professional who can walk you through the fine print and help you secure the product that truly keeps your costs low. If you’d like to explore your options—or review your current mortgage to see if it’s really working in your favour—let’s connect. I’d be happy to help.
Apologies in advance for all the baseball puns! We are fully on the Blue Jay bandwagon over here ad loving every minute of it! Who knew baseball could be so much fun and wow, the strategy!! Very impressed!! As you likely heard, the Bank of Canada took the mound and cut the BOC policy rate to 2.25% which will push prime down to 4.45%. That’s the lowest since mid-2022. This was not a celebratory pitch. It was a damage-control adjustment to help an economy that’s limping between bases. Why the BoC Made the Move Think of the economy as a lineup that’s losing steam: GDP contracted — investment and exports are getting jammed inside Jobs remain soft — hiring is weak, unemployment is climbing Trade uncertainty (especially CUSMA renewal drama) has businesses choking up on the bat Consumers are still swinging , but they can’t win the series alone Inflation Scoreboard Inflation isn’t a shutout, but the score is manageable: CPI hovering near 2–2.5% Core still “sticky” around 3%, but trending lower BoC believes price pressures will cool further in coming innings That gave them the green light to make this cut without risking a walk-off inflation disaster. Forward Guidance = “Don’t Expect Extra Cuts Right Away” Macklem essentially said: If the game plays out as expected, this is the right rate for now. Translation: barring a shock, don’t expect another cut in December. This is likely a pause , not the start of an aggressive easing cycle. Markets agree — odds of another cut next meeting are tiny.
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario October 29, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks. While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027. In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover. Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady. The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually. CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon. With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast. The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026. Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report
