Market Update: Navigating Economic Uncertainty in BC's Housing Market

Marci Deane • April 14, 2025

Market Update: Navigating Economic Uncertainty in BC's Housing Market

Economic Outlook from Brendan Ogmundson, CMBA-BC Conference

(Following is a summary of my notes taken during Brendan’s live presentation on Tuesday April 8, 2025)


The current economic landscape is characterized by unprecedented uncertainty, according to economist Brendan Ogmundson's recent presentation at the CMBA-BC Conference. His analysis, titled "Stuck Between Stations," highlights several key factors influencing BC's housing market and broader economic outlook.


Housing Market Trends

Uncertainty has reached record highs—exceeding even 2020 levels—with a striking 600% increase in Canadians reporting concerns about job security. This uncertainty is directly impacting housing market decisions, particularly home buying intentions.

The housing inventory situation is evolving rapidly:

  • Listings are accumulating steadily
  • Total active listings across the province are approaching 40,000-45,000 units
  • Completed but unsold new inventory has reached an all-time high


These inventory trends are expected to slow housing starts over the next 1-2 years. Current forecasts suggest housing prices will likely remain flat or potentially decrease in the near term.


Financial Stability

Despite these challenges, BC homeowners appear to be weathering the economic storm relatively well for now. Mortgage arrears and bankruptcies remain at historically low levels, though this represents an ongoing risk worth monitoring.


Interest Rate Outlook

The bond market continues to experience significant volatility, which is likely to persist in the coming weeks. As a result, lenders are expected to maintain current fixed rate offerings. The Bank of Canada is anticipated to implement one more rate cut, though timing remains uncertain due to inflation concerns related to emerging trade tensions.


Ogmundson noted that substantial rate cuts would require a dramatic increase in unemployment—to approximately 8%—which is not the current baseline expectation. Additionally, slowing population growth combined with already poor productivity metrics is expected to reduce Canada's potential GDP growth from 2% to 1.5%.


These factors may lead to a new neutral interest rate around 2.25%, with the April Monetary Policy Report potentially confirming a lowered neutral rate.


Trade Tensions and Tariffs

A significant portion of the presentation addressed the impact of escalating trade tensions, particularly with China. The effective tariff rate with China has now exceeded 40%, creating mechanical price increases throughout supply chains.

These tariffs are projected to:

  • Lower economic growth
  • Increase prices by at least 2.3%
  • Reduce disposable income by approximately $3,000 per US household


The presentation characterized the potential economic contraction as a "Trumpcession," noting that recent trade policies resemble 18th-century mercantilism with its zero-sum mentality of maximizing exports while minimizing imports.


Impact on British Columbia

The effects of these economic headwinds will not be uniform across BC, with northern regions potentially facing greater challenges. Economic modeling suggests provincial unemployment could rise above 7%, compared to a baseline of 5% without trade tensions.


As we continue to monitor these economic developments, maintaining flexibility and caution in financial and investment decisions will be crucial in navigating this period of heightened uncertainty.

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jun 4th, 2025

By Marci Deane • June 4, 2025
Bank of Canada holds policy rate at 2¾%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario June 4, 2025 The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. Since the April Monetary Policy Report, the US administration has continued to increase and decrease various tariffs. China and the United States have stepped back from extremely high tariffs and bilateral trade negotiations have begun with a number of countries. However, the outcomes of these negotiations are highly uncertain, tariff rates are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. Uncertainty remains high. While the global economy has shown resilience in recent months, this partly reflects a temporary surge in activity to get ahead of tariffs. In the United States, domestic demand remained relatively strong but higher imports pulled down first-quarter GDP. US inflation has ticked down but remains above 2%, with the price effects of tariffs still to come. In Europe, economic growth has been supported by exports, while defence spending is set to increase. China’s economy has slowed as the effects of past fiscal support fade. More recently, high tariffs have begun to curtail Chinese exports to the US. Since the financial market turmoil in April, risk assets have largely recovered and volatility has diminished, although markets remain sensitive to US policy announcements. Oil prices have fluctuated but remain close to their levels at the time of the April MPR. In Canada, economic growth in the first quarter came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast, while the composition of GDP growth was largely as expected. The pull-forward of exports to the United States and inventory accumulation boosted activity, with final domestic demand roughly flat. Strong spending on machinery and equipment held up growth in business investment by more than expected. Consumption slowed from its very strong fourth-quarter pace, but continued to grow despite a large drop in consumer confidence. Housing activity was down, driven by a sharp contraction in resales. Government spending also declined. The labour market has weakened, particularly in trade-intensive sectors, and unemployment has risen to 6.9%. The economy is expected to be considerably weaker in the second quarter, with the strength in exports and inventories reversing and final domestic demand remaining subdued. CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in April, as the elimination of the federal consumer carbon tax reduced inflation by 0.6 percentage points. Excluding taxes, inflation rose 2.3% in April, slightly stronger than the Bank had expected. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation, as well as other measures of underlying inflation, moved up. Recent surveys indicate that households continue to expect that tariffs will raise prices and many businesses say they intend to pass on the costs of higher tariffs. The Bank will be watching all these indicators closely to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving. With uncertainty about US tariffs still high, the Canadian economy softer but not sharply weaker, and some unexpected firmness in recent inflation data, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate as we gain more information on US trade policy and its impacts. We will continue to assess the timing and strength of both the downward pressures on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs. Governing Council is proceeding carefully, with particular attention to the risks and uncertainties facing the Canadian economy. These include: the extent to which higher US tariffs reduce demand for Canadian exports; how much this spills over into business investment, employment and household spending; how much and how quickly cost increases are passed on to consumer prices; and how inflation expectations evolve. We are focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. We will support economic growth while ensuring inflation remains well controlled. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 30, 2025. The Bank will publish its next MPR at the same time.

Can Foreign Buyers Still Purchase Property in BC

By Marci Dean • June 2, 2025
If you’re new to Canada, on a work permit, or simply curious about buying a home in British Columbia as a non-resident, you may have heard some conflicting info. Between federal bans and provincial taxes, it can feel like a maze.  Let’s break it down – simply and clearly – so you know what’s actually possible. 🚫 The Federal Ban on Foreign Buyers (Until 2027) In early 2023, the Canadian government introduced a two-year ban on foreign nationals purchasing residential real estate. In 2024, that ban was extended until January 1, 2027 . ❗ Who’s affected: Foreign nationals who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents Corporations and entities based outside of Canada ✅ Who’s exempt and can still buy: People on valid work permits (183+ days remaining at time of purchase) Certain international students (who’ve filed 5+ years of Canadian tax returns and are buying under $500K) Refugees or protected persons Those buying jointly with a Canadian spouse or partner 👉 Important : Even if you’re allowed to buy under federal rules, there are still provincial taxes to consider. The B.C. Foreign Buyer Tax (a.k.a. the Additional Property Transfer Tax) If you’re a foreign buyer and you’re purchasing property in designated parts of B.C. (including Metro Vancouver, Victoria, Fraser Valley, Kelowna, and Nanaimo), you’ll pay an extra 20% on top of the home’s price. Example: Buying a $1.2 million home as a non-exempt foreign buyer? Standard B.C. Property Transfer Tax: $22,000 Additional 20% Tax : $240,000 Total in taxes : $262,000 😬 Yep – that adds up fast. How to avoid the 20%: You may be exempt if: You’re a B.C. Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) participant buying your primary residence You’re a Canadian citizen or permanent resident You qualify for certain refunds after becoming a permanent resident within a year What Should You Do? If you’re on a work permit or navigating immigration pathways – you may still be able to buy , but it’s critical to understand the rules and the costs. As a mortgage broker, I’ve helped many newcomers figure out: If they’re eligible to buy What taxes apply (and how to reduce them!) What mortgage options are available Want the Full Breakdown? I’ve created a free, downloadable one-page Foreign Buyer Reference Guide with a full tax breakdown and clear examples. 📅 [Click here to download it now] Have questions about whether you can buy property in B.C.? Let’s chat. Ask Marci About Mortgages. ✅Honest advice. ✅ Clear answers. ✅ No confusion.

Big News for First-Time Home Buyers: GST Relief Is Here!

By Marci Deane • May 28, 2025
Buying your first home just got a little easier — and a lot less expensive — thanks to a major new government announcement made on May 27, 2025. If you're thinking about purchasing a newly built home or condo, here's what you need to know (in plain English). What’s the Big Change? The Government of Canada is introducing a new GST rebate just for First-Time Home Buyers (FTHB) : 100% GST rebate on new homes up to $1 million A partial GST rebate for homes between $1 million and $1.5 million No rebate for homes priced $1.5 million or more 💥 Translation: You could save up to $50,000 in taxes on a new build — serious money back in your pocket! What Types of Homes Qualify? The rebate applies to: New homes or condos purchased from a builder Owner-built homes (yep, if you're building yourself!) Co-op housing units (if you're buying shares in a housing co-op) Who Qualifies as a First-Time Buyer? You’re considered a First-Time Home Buyer if: You're 18 or older A Canadian citizen or permanent resident You (or your spouse/common-law partner) haven’t owned a home in the last 4 years — anywhere in the world When Does This Start? To qualify, your purchase contract signed or construction must start on or after May 27, 2025 , and: Construction must begin before 2031 Homes must be substantially completed before 2036 Buyers with contracts signed prior to May 27, 2025 will NOT qualify Some Fine Print You Should Know There are a few limits: You can only claim this once in your lifetime If your spouse or partner already used it , you can’t You won’t qualify if the original agreement to buy was signed before May 27, 2025 (Yes, I already said that but it bears repeating!!) It must be your primary residence Why This Is a Game Changer Let’s be real — saving up for a home is hard enough , especially in today’s market. This new GST rebate is a massive win for first-time buyers and a big push to get more homes built across Canada. ✔️ Less tax ✔️ More homes ✔️ A major step toward affordable ownership 📌 Want the Full Details? You can read the full government announcement right here . Need help understanding this or to get pre-approved, I am here to help. marci@askmarci.ca