Tempered Rate Hike Forecasts for 2019

Marci • December 12, 2018

Floating-rate mortgage holders who had feared the Bank of Canada’s recent full-steam-ahead view towards continued rate hikes can take a breather—at least for now.

The central bank adopted a more dovish stance at yesterday’s rate hold announcement, which confirmed a growing chorus of analysts who now expect the bank to take a slower pace on future rate hikes.

“Recent events aren’t likely to push the bank off of a tightening path, but they do remove any urgency in getting to a neutral policy rate,” wrote Brian DePratto, a senior economist with TD Bank. “We no longer expect the Bank of Canada to hike its policy interest rate in January. Spring 2019 now appears to be the more likely timing, allowing for the bank to ensure that the growth narrative is back on track.”

Just a month and a half earlier, when the BoC hiked rates for the fifth time in 15 months to 1.75%, it made clear its intention to bring rates to a “neutral range” it says is needed to keep inflation in check while not hindering the economy. It estimated that range to be between 2.50% and 3.50%.

The BoC reiterated this intention yesterday, but admitted it may now take longer to get there. “The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on a number of factors,” the bank’s statement read.

And again this morning, during a speech in Toronto, Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that the pace of increases will be “decidedly data dependent.”

“We will continue to gauge the impact of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and monitor global trade policy developments,” he said. “The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment and our assessment of the economy’s capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy.”

Bond Market Skeptical About Future Rate Hikes

Despite the Bank of Canada’s commitment to higher rates, the bond market is signalling it’s not so sure.

The Canadian 5-year bond yield, which leads fixed mortgage rates, has plummeted to a six-month low.

“The bond market has doubts about the Bank of Canada’s commitment to rate hikes in 2019,” Adam Button, Chief Currency Analyst at ForexLive, told CMT.

“Those doubts turned to outright defiance after [yesterday’s] statement,” he added. “The market is now pricing in fewer than two rate hikes in 2019. Before the BoC statement, the market was looking for a 65% chance of a hike at the January 9 meeting. That’s plunged to 25% and now a hike isn’t fully priced in before mid-year.”

What Does This Mean for Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rate observers can be forgiven for expecting fixed rates to fall. With a decline in bond yields of this magnitude, that’s what you would normally see.

But Robert McLister, founder of rate-comparison website RateSpy.com, explained that things are different this time.

“Normally we’d have seen at least one bank chop advertised fixed rates by now. But not this time. Banks are purposely padding margins,” he wrote. “On top of this, banks are increasingly building in small premiums to offset the policy/rate-driven slowdown in housing/mortgage growth, late-cycle housing/economic risk, and more stringent capital rules.”

Floating Rates Looking Attractive Again

With inflated fixed rates and the prospect of fewer Bank of Canada rate hikes over the next year, variable and adjustable-rate mortgages are looking more appealing to an increasing share of mortgage shoppers.

Nearly a third of CMHC-insured homebuyers (31%) chose a variable-rate mortgage over a fixed rate in the third quarter of 2018, the housing agency reported last week.

This is the highest share of high-ratio borrowers to choose variable rates since CMHC began tracking these figures. Typically no more than 20% go variable, according to the agency’s historical data.

McLister said the best variable rates for default-insured mortgages are currently around 2.80%, or 3.04% for those who are refinancing.

“That gives you at least a three-rate-hike head start over conventional 5-year fixed rates,” he noted.

This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on the Canadian Mortgage Trends on December 10th 2018.

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Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

By Marci Deane • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario October 29, 2025 The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks. While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027. In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover. Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady. The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually. CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon. With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast. The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026. Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report

Tips to Pay Off Your Mortgage Early

By Marci Deane • October 22, 2025

Owning a home feels great—carrying a large mortgage, not so much. The good news? With the right strategies, you can shorten your amortization, save thousands in interest, and become mortgage-free sooner than you think. Here are four proven ways to make it happen: 1. Switch to Accelerated Payments One of the simplest ways to reduce your mortgage faster is by moving from monthly payments to accelerated bi-weekly payments . Instead of 12 monthly payments a year, you’ll make 26 half-payments. That works out to the equivalent of one extra monthly payment each year, shaving years off your mortgage—often without you noticing much difference in your budget. 2. Increase Your Regular Payments Most mortgages allow you to boost your regular payment by 10–25%. Some even let you double up payments occasionally. Every extra dollar goes directly toward your principal, which means less interest and faster progress toward paying off your balance. 3. Make Lump-Sum Payments Depending on your lender, you may be able to make lump-sum payments of 10–25% of your original mortgage balance each year. This option is ideal if you receive a bonus, inheritance, or other windfall. Applying a lump sum directly to your principal immediately reduces the interest charged for the rest of your term. 4. Review Your Mortgage Annually It’s easy to put your mortgage on auto-pilot, but a yearly review keeps you in control. By sitting down with an independent mortgage professional, you can check if refinancing, restructuring, or adjusting terms could save you money. A quick annual review helps ensure your mortgage is always working for you—not against you. The Bottom Line Paying off your mortgage early doesn’t require a massive lifestyle change—it’s about making smart, consistent choices. Whether it’s accelerated payments, lump sums, or regular reviews, every step you take helps reduce your debt faster. If you’d like to explore strategies tailored to your situation—or want a free annual mortgage review—let’s connect. I’d be happy to help you find the fastest path to mortgage freedom.

Buying a Vacation Property or Rental? Here’s What Lenders Look For

By Marci Deane • October 15, 2025

Owning a vacation home or an investment rental property is a dream for many Canadians. Whether it’s a cottage on the lake for family getaways or a rental unit to generate extra income, real estate can be both a lifestyle choice and a smart financial move. But before you dive in, it’s important to know what lenders look for when financing these types of properties. 1. Down Payment Requirements The biggest difference between buying a primary residence and a vacation or rental property is the down payment. Vacation property (owner-occupied, seasonal, or secondary home): Typically requires at least 5–10% down, depending on the lender and whether the property is winterized and accessible year-round. Rental property: Usually requires a minimum of 20% down. This is because rental income can fluctuate, and lenders want extra security before approving financing. 2. Property Type & Location Not all properties qualify for traditional mortgage financing. Lenders consider: Accessibility : Is the property accessible year-round (roads maintained, utilities available)? Condition : Seasonal or non-winterized cottages may not meet standard lending criteria. Zoning & Use : If it’s a rental, lenders want to ensure it complies with municipal bylaws and zoning regulations. Properties that fall outside these norms may require financing through alternative lenders, often with higher rates but more flexibility. 3. Rental Income Considerations If you’re buying a property with the intent to rent it out, lenders may factor the rental income into your mortgage application. Long-term rentals : Lenders typically accept 50–80% of the expected rental income when calculating your debt-service ratios. Short-term rentals (Airbnb, VRBO, etc.) : Many traditional lenders are cautious about using projected income from short-term rentals. Alternative lenders may be more flexible, depending on the property’s location and your financial profile. 4. Debt-Service Ratios Lenders use your Gross Debt Service (GDS) and Total Debt Service (TDS) ratios to determine if you can handle the mortgage payments alongside your other obligations. With investment or vacation properties, lenders may apply stricter guidelines, especially if your primary residence already carries a large mortgage. 5. Credit & Financial Stability Your credit score, employment history, and overall financial health still matter. Since vacation and rental properties are considered higher risk, lenders want reassurance that you can handle the additional debt—even if rental income fluctuates or the property sits vacant. 6. Insurance Requirements Rental properties often require specialized landlord insurance, and vacation homes may need coverage tailored to seasonal or secondary use. Lenders will want proof of adequate insurance before releasing mortgage funds. The Bottom Line Buying a vacation property or rental can be exciting, but financing these purchases comes with extra rules and considerations. From higher down payments to stricter property requirements, lenders want to be confident that you can handle the responsibility. If you’re considering a second property, the best step is to work with a mortgage professional who can compare lender requirements, outline your options, and find the financing that works best for you. Thinking about making your dream of a vacation or rental property a reality? Connect with us today.