Fall Survey Highlights Stress Test Fallout

Marci • December 11, 2017

OSFI’s forthcoming stress test for all uninsured mortgages after January 1 will have far-reaching effects across the mortgage industry, potentially removing up to 50,000 buyers from the real estate market each year.

That’s one of many key findings from Mortgage Professionals  Canada’s Annual State of the Residential Mortgage Market  survey, released this week by the association’s chief economist Will Dunning.

“The market is already slowing under the weight of increased interest rates, and policies aimed at suppressing the market further might be adding to economic risks,” he said.

Like in years past, this report dishes up a healthy serving of relevant and insightful industry statistics. We’ve combed them over and have included some of the most pertinent below. (Data points of special interest appear in blue.)

 **********

New OSFI Regulations

  • 18%: The percentage of prospective homebuyers  who require a mortgage and who otherwise would have had reasonable prospects of completing their desired transactions,  that are expected to fail the stress test and therefore not be able to make their anticipated purchase
  • 91%: The percentage of new mortgages, across all channels, that will be subject to some form of stress testing
  • 6.8% (or $31,000): The amount that potential homebuyers will need to reduce their target price in order to pass the stress test
    • 20%: The percentage of buyers who will have to adjust their target price by less than 2.5%
  • 40-50%: The percentage of buyers who will fail the stress test, that are expected to be unable to find an alternative for which they can qualify
  • 100,000: The number of prospective buyers who previously could have qualified for financing, who will now be disqualified
  • 50,000-60,000: The number of buyers who will still be able to make a purchase, though one that is “less attractive to them”
  • 40,000-50,000: The number of prospective buyers who will be removed from home ownership entirely
  • 50,000-100,000: The potential number of renewers each year who “may find themselves unnecessarily vulnerable” in their mortgage renewals as they will be unable to negotiate with other federally regulated lenders
    • “In some cases, these renewing borrowers may be forced to accept uncompetitive rates from their current lenders,” Dunning notes

Mortgage Types and Amortization Periods

  • 68%: Percentage of mortgage in Canada that have fixed interest rates (72% for mortgages on homes purchased during 2016 or 2017)
  • 28%: Percentage of mortgages that have variable or adjustable rates (24% for mortgages taken out in 2016/2017)
  • 4%: Percentage that are a combination of fixed and variable, known as “hybrid” mortgages
  • 86%: Percentage of mortgages with and amortization period of 25 years or less (81% for home purchased between 2014 and 2017)
  • 14%: Percentage with extended amortizations of more than 25 years (19% for recent purchases between 2014 and 2017)

Actions that Accelerate Repayment

  • ~33%: Percentage of overall mortgage holders who voluntarily take action to shorten their amortization periods (vs. 38% of recent buyers)
  • For buyers who purchased a home between 2014 and 2017:
    • 18% made a lump-sum payment (the average payment was $19,500)
    • 16% increased the amount of their payment (the average amount was $440 more a month)
    • 10% increased payment frequency

Mortgage Sources

  • 46%: Percentage of borrowers who took out a new mortgage during 2016 or 2017 who obtained the mortgage from a Canadian bank (vs. 61% of total mortgages)
  • 39%: Percentage of recent mortgages that were arranged by a mortgage broker  (vs. 27% of overall mortgages)
  • 12%: Percentage of recent borrowers who obtained their mortgage through a credit union  (vs. 8% of all mortgages)

Interest Rates

  • 2.96%: The average mortgage interest rate in Canada
    • A small drop from the 3.02% average recorded last year, though down substantially from the 3.50% average rate in 2013
  • 2.90%: The average interest rate for mortgages on homes purchased during 2017
  • 2.68%: The average rate for mortgages renewed in 2017
  • 51%: Of those who renewed in 2017, percentage who saw their interest rate drop
    • Among all borrowers who renewed in 2017, their rates dropped an average of 0.19%
  • 2.72%: The average actual rate for a 5-year fixed mortgage in 2017 , about two percentage points lower than the posted rates, which averaged 4.72%

Miscellaneous

  • 0.24% (1 in 401 borrowers): The current mortgage arrears rate in Canada (as of August 2017)
  • $1,486: The average monthly mortgage payment ($1,568 for recent purchases made from 2014 to 2017)

Equity

  • 62%: The average percentage of home equity for homeowners who have a mortgage but no HELOC
  • 58%: The average equity ratio for owners with both a mortgage and a HELOC
  • 81%: The equity ratio for those without a mortgage but with a HELOC
  • 91%: Percentage of homeowners who have 25% or more equity in their homes
  • 53%: Among recent buyers who bought their home from 2014 to 2017, the percentage with 25% or more equity in their homes

Equity Takeout

  • 9% (860,000): Percentage of homeowners who took equity out of their home in the past year
  • $54,500: The average amount of equity taken out
  • $47 billion: The total equity takeout over the past year
  • $28 billion was via mortgages and $17 billion was via HELOCs
  • Most common uses for the funds include:
    • 26% (10.7 billion): For purchases (including education)
    • 22% ($9 billion): For home renovation and repair
    • 21% ($8.7 billion): For debt consolidation and repayment
    • 21% ($8.4 billion): For investments
    • 10% ($4.2 billion): For “other” purposes
    • Equity takeout was most common among homeowners who purchased their home during 2000 to 2009

Sources of Down payments

  • 26%: The average down payment made by first-time buyers from 2014 to 2017, as a percentage of home price
    • This is a significant increase from previous surveys, where the average down payment was consistently around 20%. Dunning writes that most of these buyers appear to have increased their down payments to avoid the need for mortgage insurance
  • The top sources of these down payment funds for homes bought from 2014 to 2017 were:
    • 92%: Personal savings
    • 43%: Gifts from parents or other family members (vs. 23% from 2010-2013)
    • 19%: Loan from parents or other family members (vs. 12% from 2010-2013)
    • 27%: Loan from a financial institution
    • 29%: Withdrawal from RRSP
  • 105 weeks: The amount of working time at the average wage needed to amass a 20% down payment on an average-priced home
    • This is up from 93 weeks in 2014 and 53 weeks two decades ago

Homeownership as “Forced Saving”

  • 50%: Approximate percentage of the first mortgage payment that goes towards principal repayment (based on current rates)
    • 10 years ago this share was about 25%
    • Dunning notes that rapid repayment of principal means that, “once the mortgage loan is made, risk diminishes rapidly”
    • He added that most affordability analyses use the posted rate, “which gives a distorted impression of the current level of affordability, and of how current affordability compares to the past”

A Falling Homeownership Rate

  • 67.8%: The homeownership rate in Canada in 2016
    • Down from 69% in 2011
  • Ownership rates fell for the three youngest age groups of buyers (first-time buyers) by more than 4%
  • Dunning attributes this “disappointing” change to:
    • The increased difficulty of saving down payments
    • The elevated rate of “forced saving”
    • Five sets of mortgage insurance policy changes by the federal government that have made it more difficult to buy

Consumer Sentiment

  • 7.15: The average score (on a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 indicated complete disagreement) with the following statement: “Low interest rates have meant that a lot of Canadians became homeowners over the past few years who probably should not be homeowners.” (Up from an average score of 6.98 in previous surveys)
  • 7.15: Average score in response to the statement that “real estate in Canada is a good long-term investment” (down from the previous average of 7.28)
  • 90%: The percentage of homeowners who are happy with their decision to buy a home
  • 7%: Of those who regret their decision to buy, the regret pertains to the particular property purchased
  • Just 4% regret their decision to buy in general

Consumers’ Comfort with Technology

  • 65%: Percentage of mortgage consumers who are “moderately” or “quite” comfortable with texting or instant messaging their mortgage professional with questions or concerns (77% of those aged 18-24)
  • 47%: Percentage who are moderately or quite comfortable with being served by an online digital mortgage advisor (i.e., a chatbot) when applying for a mortgage  (vs. 58% of those aged 18-24)
    • 40% are “uncomfortable” while 27% are “moderately uncomfortable”
  • 50%: Percentage who are moderately or quite comfortable with applying for a mortgage through an app on their mobile device (vs. 73% for those aged 18-24)
    • 36% are uncomfortable while 26% are moderately uncomfortable
  • Dunning notes that comfort levels are greatest for the youngest age groups, but surprisingly also among those aged 65 and older

Outlook for the Mortgage Market

  • Data on housing starts suggests housing completions in 2018 will increase slightly compared to 2017. “This factor, therefore, will tend to increase the growth rate for mortgage credit,” Dunning writes.
  • “Another significant factor is that low interest rates mean that consumers pay less for interest and, therefore, are able to pay off principal more rapidly,” he noted. “Current low interest rates have, therefore, tended to reduce the growth rate for mortgage debt.”
  • 5.9%: The current year-over-year rate of mortgage growth (as of August)
    • Vs. an average rate of 7.3% per year over the past 12 years
    • Dunning expects the  growth rate to slow to 5.6% by the end of 2017 and 5.5% for 2018

 

 

This article was written by Steve Huebl of Canadian Mortgage Trends. It was originally published here on December 8 2017.

Share

By Marci Deane August 19, 2026
What Online Mortgage Calculators Can—and Can’t—Tell You Online mortgage calculators are everywhere—and on the surface, they seem like a no-brainer. You plug in some numbers, and out pops what you can “afford.” Simple, right? Not quite. While the math itself is correct, the story behind those numbers is often misleading. Mortgage qualification isn’t just about numbers—it’s about context, risk, and lender policy. And that’s where calculators fall short. The Numbers Are Accurate—but the Picture Isn’t An online calculator can show you what a payment might look like at a given interest rate, or how making extra payments could reduce your amortization. That’s useful information! But when it comes to mortgage qualification , calculators don’t account for the many variables that lenders consider, such as: Your credit history and score Employment type (salary, self-employed, contract) Outstanding debts and monthly obligations Assets, savings, and down payment source The property type and location you’re buying Lenders evaluate all these factors through their internal risk models. That means two people entering the exact same numbers into a calculator could receive very different results when they actually apply for a mortgage. Why Online Calculators Can Mislead You When you see a “How much can I afford?” or “Mortgage Qualification” calculator online, it’s easy to treat the result as fact. But these tools don’t know your financial story—they only crunch the data you enter. A calculator can’t predict how a lender views your risk, how new mortgage rules apply to your file, or how things like spousal support, car loans, or variable income will impact approval. In short: calculators estimate payments, not qualification . Use Calculators the Right Way Don’t get us wrong—online calculators still have value. Use them to explore different “what-if” scenarios: How do payments change with different down payment amounts? How would a rate increase affect affordability? What if you added $100 a month to your payments? These tools are great for helping you understand your comfort zone. Just remember: they’re a starting point, not a green light. The Real First Step: Get a Pre-Approval If you’re serious about buying a home, skip the guesswork and get a mortgage pre-approval . It’s quick, free, and gives you real-world clarity on what you can afford. A pre-approval looks at your full financial picture—income, credit, debts, assets—and provides a framework for your purchase price, payment range, and rate options. It’s the only way to get a reliable answer to the question, “What can I really afford?” Final Thoughts Online calculators are convenient, but they can’t replace expert advice. Think of them as a starting point, not a solution. A professional mortgage broker can interpret the numbers, navigate lender policies, and tailor your financing strategy to your actual situation. If you’d like help understanding your true buying power—or want to get pre-approved with confidence— reach out anytime . I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you make sense of the numbers.
By Marci Deane August 12, 2026
Going Through a Divorce? Don’t Let Your Credit Take the Hit Divorce is stressful enough without adding financial fallout to the mix. Between lawyers, paperwork, and emotional strain, it’s easy to overlook how a separation can impact your credit. But your financial future depends on protecting it now—because long after the dust settles, a damaged credit score can linger. Here are a few smart steps to help keep your credit strong and your finances steady as you move forward. 1. Take Control of Joint Debts When it comes to joint debt, both parties are equally responsible—no matter what your divorce agreement says. If your ex misses a payment on an account with your name attached, your credit takes the hit too. Go through all joint credit cards, loans, and lines of credit. Wherever possible: Close joint accounts to stop future shared use. Transfer balances to the person responsible for repayment. Notify lenders in writing of any changes to account ownership. Once everything is updated, pull your credit report after three to six months to confirm all joint accounts have been closed and reporting correctly. Mistakes happen—stay proactive to prevent surprises later. 2. Open Your Own Bank Accounts Separation means financial independence, and that starts with your own banking. Open a new chequing account in your name only and redirect your pay deposits and bill payments there. At the same time, close any joint bank accounts and change passwords on existing online banking and credit profiles. Even in peaceful separations, shared access can cause confusion—or conflict. Protect yourself by ensuring your money and information are secure. 3. Start Building Credit in Your Name If most of your past credit was tied to your spouse’s name, now’s the time to establish your own. Apply for a small personal credit card or secured credit product . Use it sparingly and pay it off in full each month. This helps you build a solid individual credit history, setting the stage for future goals like buying a home, refinancing, or starting fresh financially. 4. Keep an Eye on Your Credit Monitor your credit report regularly for errors or unexpected changes. You can request free reports from both major credit bureaus in Canada— Equifax and TransUnion —once a year. Tracking your credit isn’t just about catching mistakes; it helps you see your progress as you rebuild your financial independence. Final Thoughts Divorce can be emotionally draining, but protecting your credit doesn’t have to be complicated. By taking a few careful steps now—closing joint accounts, building credit in your name, and monitoring your reports—you’ll safeguard your financial health and gain peace of mind as you start your next chapter. If you’d like personalized guidance on managing credit during or after a divorce, reach out anytime. I’d be happy to walk you through your options.
By Marci Deane August 5, 2026
When you apply for a mortgage, your employment history and status carry a lot of weight. Even if you feel secure in your job, lenders need proof that your income is reliable and will continue. To them, your employment status is one of the strongest indicators of whether you can make your mortgage payments long term. Here’s how lenders typically view different employment situations: Permanent Employment This is the gold standard. Once you’ve passed any probationary period and hold permanent status, lenders see you as a lower risk. It shows that your employer is committed to you, and your income is steady. Probationary Periods If you’re still on probation—usually 3 to 6 months, though sometimes longer—lenders may hesitate. That’s because your employer can end your contract without cause during this period. Once probation is over, you’re considered more secure. That said, context matters. If you’ve worked with the same company for years as a contractor and just transitioned into full-time employment, lenders may accept a letter from your employer confirming that probation is waived. Documentation is key here. Parental Leave Being on or about to take parental leave doesn’t mean you can’t qualify for a mortgage. As long as you have a letter from your employer guaranteeing your position and return-to-work date, lenders can use your regular salary—not your leave income—when assessing your application. Term Contracts This is one of the trickiest categories. Even highly skilled professionals with strong incomes can face challenges here. A term contract has a start and end date, which makes lenders question the stability of your future income. To use term-contract income, lenders generally want to see at least two years of history, or proof that your contract has already been renewed. The more evidence you can show of consistent employment, the stronger your case will be. The Bottom Line If you’re planning to apply for a mortgage, it’s important to understand how your employment status could affect your approval. Whether you’re starting a new job, coming back from leave, or working under contract, lenders want documentation that proves your income is reliable. 📞 If you’ve recently changed jobs or are planning a career shift, let’s connect. I can help you prepare your file so you qualify with confidence and avoid surprises in the approval process.